With Estimated quote visible in search, buyers will have a more transparent view of each operator’s likely quote price, and can therefore make more informed decisions when requesting an aircraft.
The Estimated Quote is based on historical quote data from each operator. Calculating the differences between requested price & quoted price over a time period, we are able to estimate what the quoted price is likely to be for the trip you search for.
You’ll see the Estimated median quote price for each aircraft in the search result. Hovering over the estimated median quote price shows a tooltip where you will see the full estimated quote range - lower, median and higher. You will also see information on what time period this data is calculated on.
Details on how Estimated Quote price is calculated:
We look at all the quotes an aircraft received in the last 30 days and rank them in order of the percentage price difference between the request price and the quote price. We take the median of the price differences as the median estimate coefficient. The lower estimate coefficient is the 10th percentile of their price differences and the higher estimate coefficient is the 90th percentile of their price differences. We apply the coefficients to the Price in search to calculate the Estimated Quote range.
We need at least 30 accepted quotes in the last 30 days to calculate the Estimated Quote range.
If there are less than 30 quotes in the last 30 days for that tail, the algorithm will have a fall back to use all quotes for tails of the same aircraft type for that company.
If there are less than 30 quotes in the last 30 days for that aircraft type, the algorithm will then have a fallback to use all quotes for all tails of the same aircraft category for that company.
If there are still less than 30 quotes in the last 30 days for that aircraft category, the algorithm will then have a fallback to use all quotes for all tails for that company all together.
If, at this point, there are still not enough quotes, we increase the time period to use all quotes for that tail for the company over the last 180 days. If there are still not 30 quotes in 180 days, we use the same fall back mechanism as previously described.
If we still don’t have enough quotes to calculate the Estimated Quote price range, we default to what you see in the 'Price' column (i.e. based on schedule, pricing profile etc.) and use that for all the ranges.
The above calculations for the price coefficients, as well as the fall back, are done once per day.
There will be an estimated quote visible for each tail in search, except for newly added companies before the calculation has been run.